The other two finalists are Minnestoa-Duluth's Jack Connolly (20G - 40A - 60PTS) and Maine's Spencer Abbott (21G - 41A - 62PTS. Like Smith, these two candidates are seniors, were named their respective league's MVP, and led their team in scoring. Abbott is second in the nation with 62 points, and Connolly is right behind him.
While Connolly and Abbott are tremendous players, I feel Smith is the logical choice to win the most coveted individual award in college hockey. Here's why:
Goals > Assists
While playmakers are extremely valuable, they can't pick up the assist totals without a good finisher. I'd much rather have a guy with 30 goals than 30 assists. There's also the fact that there's no such thing as a secondary goal, but you can pick up an assist on a secondary assist. Smith not only led the nation with 36 goals, he did so by a healthy margin. The only other player in the country with 30 goals was Miami's Reilly Smith (no relation). Abbott's 21 goals is tied for 18th most in the nation, while Connolly's 20 are tied for 21st. In other words, "Hobey Like Goals."
Smith Earned His Points
This isn't saying that Abbott and Connolly didn't earn their points, but their stat totals are slightly padded. The first thing to note is the amount of points each player picked up while on the power-play. While Smith only notched about 25% of points while on the man advantage, Abbott and Connolly picked up about half of their points on the PP. Also note that Smith had six shorthanded goals (8PTS overall), while the other two candidates only have on shorthanded point this season.
The next point is on the topic of assists. Not only were Abbott and Connolly the top two in points in the country, they were also the top two in assists. Smith is not even in the Top 30 with just 21 points. But, take a look at primary assists, which I think are more valuable and harder to come by than secondary assists. While Abbott and Connolly each had 16 secondary assists, Smith only had six. So, while the other candidates picked up 42% of their assists on secondary assists, Smith accumulated only 32% of his assists as the secondary assistman. What this means is that while Abbott and Connolly are great playmakers, they did not have a "direct" impact on goals as much as Smith did. While I'm sure a lot of Abbott and Connolly's secondary assists were vital to goals, I'm also confident saying that a good portion of them were picked up on lesser plays.
The Others Had Help
This is definitely not a knock on Smith's linemate Chris Wagner. The sophomore centerman was absolutely vital to Smith's success this year, picking up 34 assists this season and adding 17 goals of his own. But after that, the Raiders didn't have too many guns this year. While Smith and Wagner each had 50+ points, no Raider had more than 23 points or 12 goals.
Abbott and Connolly definitely had more help than Smith. Abbott played on a line with Brian Flynn (18G - 30A - 48PTS) and Joey Diamond (25G - 22A - 47PTS). Over half of Abbott's assists came on goals by Flynn and Diamond. He also received support from Matt Mangene (16G - 18A - 34PTS) and Will O'Neill (3G - 30A - 33PTS) on the power-play.
Connolly's story is a bit different. He played the majority of the season with Mike Seidel (17G - 13A - 30PTS) and Joe Basarba (7G - 9A - 16PTS). This line was definitely the secondary offensive threat for the Bulldogs with the Caleb Herbert (14G - 19A - 33PTS) - Travis Oleksuk (21G -32A - 53PTS) - J.T. Brown (24G - 23A - 47PTS) combination putting up some monster numbers. This would make it seem like Connolly did not have the help to put up big numbers. But, if you look a little closer, Connolly saw a ton of time with Brown and Oleksuk on the power-play. About 40% of Connolly's assists were on goals by Brown and Oleksuk, the majority of which were on the power-play. So, while Connolly didn't play on a line with these guys, he still relied on them heavily to accumulate points.
The "EZAC" Does Not Exist
The ECAC gets a bad reputation around the country for being a weak league and not a part of the "Big 4." To be honest with you, before this season I agreed with those people in the WCHA, CCHA, and Hockey East. But, I think this season has proved that the ECAC is the real deal and a tough conference. Smith has Union and Cornell to thank for that. I think Union's run to the Frozen Four, and Cornell's win over Michigan and close game with Ferris gave the league a lot of legitimacy. This is the first time in a while that a representative from each of the "Big 4" conferences are in the Frozen Four. In years prior some people might have discounted Smith's numbers, but this year I think they solidify them. He had to go up against Union's Troy Grosenick and Cornell's Andy Iles a combined six times this season. In those six games, Smith tallied six points on three goals and three assists.
Smith Meant More To His Team
Once again, this does not mean that Abbott and Connolly were not valuable to their respective teams. They were both probably the MVP of their team, as was Smith. But, I believe Smith is the most valuable player to his team in the country. Without Smith, not only do I doubt that the Raiders would have finished in the Top 4 of the ECAC, but I think they would have finished in the bottom half. I really can't see Colgate being better than Quinnipiac and Yale, or even Clarkson this year without Smith. While Maine and Minnesota-Duluth would definitely be weaker teams without Abbott and Connolly, respectively, they would still be very competitive teams in their respective leagues and at least UMD would've probably made the NCAA Tournament. I can also mention Smith's five game-winning goals. Abbott and Connolly had five GWG's between them.
* Note: The percentages used in the analysis are approximate numbers
So, after looking at each candidate and analyzing everything involved in selecting the winner, I think Austin Smith of Colgate and ECAC Hockey is the clear-cut choice to win the Hobey Baker Award. Spencer Abbott and Jack Connolly are definitely worthy candidates, but Smith just had an incredible season.
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