Why Austin Smith Will Win The Hobey Baker Award

This past Thursday, the Hobey Hat Trick finalists were announced. While Union's Troy Grosenick did not make the cut, we are fortunate to have Colgate's Austin Smith (36G - 21A - 57PTS) make the Top 3. He is the first ECAC player to make the final round since Cornell goaltender David McKee (who is also a Texas native, like Smith) in 2005. And as you probably know by now, the last league player to win the award was Harvard's Lane McDonald in 1989.

The other two finalists are Minnestoa-Duluth's Jack Connolly (20G - 40A - 60PTS) and Maine's Spencer Abbott (21G - 41A - 62PTS. Like Smith, these two candidates are seniors, were named their respective league's MVP, and led their team in scoring. Abbott is second in the nation with 62 points, and Connolly is right behind him.

While Connolly and Abbott are tremendous players, I feel Smith is the logical choice to win the most coveted individual award in college hockey. Here's why:

Goals > Assists
While playmakers are extremely valuable, they can't pick up the assist totals without a good finisher. I'd much rather have a guy with 30 goals than 30 assists. There's also the fact that there's no such thing as a secondary goal, but you can pick up an assist on a secondary assist. Smith not only led the nation with 36 goals, he did so by a healthy margin. The only other player in the country with 30 goals was Miami's Reilly Smith (no relation). Abbott's 21 goals is tied for 18th most in the nation, while Connolly's 20 are tied for 21st. In other words, "Hobey Like Goals."

Smith Earned His Points 
This isn't saying that Abbott and Connolly didn't earn their points, but their stat totals are slightly padded. The first thing to note is the amount of points each player picked up while on the power-play. While Smith only notched about 25% of points while on the man advantage, Abbott and Connolly picked up about half of their points on the PP. Also note that Smith had six shorthanded goals (8PTS overall), while the other two candidates only have on shorthanded point this season.

The next point is on the topic of assists. Not only were Abbott and Connolly the top two in points in the country, they were also the top two in assists. Smith is not even in the Top 30 with just 21 points. But, take a look at primary assists, which I think are more valuable and harder to come by than secondary assists. While Abbott and Connolly each had 16 secondary assists, Smith only had six. So, while the other candidates picked up 42% of their assists on secondary assists, Smith accumulated only 32% of his assists as the secondary assistman. What this means is that while Abbott and Connolly are great playmakers, they did not have a "direct" impact on goals as much as Smith did. While I'm sure a lot of Abbott and Connolly's secondary assists were vital to goals, I'm also confident saying that a good portion of them were picked up on lesser plays.

The Others Had Help
This is definitely not a knock on Smith's linemate Chris Wagner. The sophomore centerman was absolutely vital to Smith's success this year, picking up 34 assists this season and adding 17 goals of his own. But after that, the Raiders didn't have too many guns this year. While Smith and Wagner each had 50+ points, no Raider had more than 23 points or 12 goals.

Abbott and Connolly definitely had more help than Smith. Abbott played on a line with Brian Flynn (18G - 30A - 48PTS) and Joey Diamond (25G - 22A - 47PTS). Over half of Abbott's assists came on goals by Flynn and Diamond. He also received support from Matt Mangene (16G - 18A - 34PTS) and Will O'Neill (3G - 30A - 33PTS) on the power-play.

Connolly's story is a bit different. He played  the majority of the season with Mike Seidel (17G - 13A - 30PTS) and Joe Basarba (7G - 9A - 16PTS). This line was definitely the secondary offensive threat for the Bulldogs with the Caleb Herbert (14G - 19A - 33PTS) - Travis Oleksuk (21G -32A - 53PTS) - J.T. Brown (24G - 23A - 47PTS) combination putting up some monster numbers. This would make it seem like Connolly did not have the help to put up big numbers. But, if you look a little closer, Connolly saw a ton of time with Brown and Oleksuk on the power-play. About 40% of Connolly's assists were on goals by Brown and Oleksuk, the majority of which were on the power-play. So, while Connolly didn't play on a line with these guys, he still relied on them heavily to accumulate points.

The "EZAC" Does Not Exist
The ECAC gets a bad reputation around the country for being a weak league and not a part of the "Big 4." To be honest with you, before this season I agreed with those people in the WCHA, CCHA, and Hockey East. But, I think this season has proved that the ECAC is the real deal and a tough conference. Smith has Union and Cornell to thank for that. I think Union's run to the Frozen Four, and Cornell's win over Michigan and close game with Ferris gave the league a lot of legitimacy. This is the first time in a while that a representative from each of the "Big 4" conferences are in the Frozen Four. In years prior some people might have discounted Smith's numbers, but this year I think they solidify them. He had to go up against Union's Troy Grosenick and Cornell's Andy Iles a combined six times this season. In those six games, Smith tallied six points on three goals and three assists.

Smith Meant More To His Team
Once again, this does not mean that Abbott and Connolly were not valuable to their respective teams. They were both probably the MVP of their team, as was Smith. But, I believe Smith is the most valuable player to his team in the country. Without Smith, not only do I doubt that the Raiders would have finished in the Top 4 of the ECAC, but I think they would have finished in the bottom half. I really can't see Colgate being better than Quinnipiac and Yale, or even Clarkson this year without Smith. While Maine and Minnesota-Duluth would definitely be weaker teams without Abbott and Connolly, respectively, they would still be very competitive teams in their respective leagues and at least UMD would've probably made the NCAA Tournament. I can also mention Smith's five game-winning goals. Abbott and Connolly had five GWG's between them.

* Note: The percentages used in the analysis are approximate numbers

So, after looking at each candidate and analyzing everything involved in selecting the winner, I think Austin Smith of Colgate and ECAC Hockey is the clear-cut choice to win the Hobey Baker Award. Spencer Abbott and Jack Connolly are definitely worthy candidates, but Smith just had an incredible season.

NCAA Regionals in Review; Looking to the Frozen Four

Freshman Daniel Ciampini scored Union's first goal against UMass-Lowell (Times Union)

This past weekend was a very good weekend for ECAC Hockey, one of the best in a while. Even though Cornell did not advance to the Frozen Four, they still beat top seeded Michigan in Green Bay, before dropping a 2-1 decision to Ferris State. Very few people gave the Big Red a chance to win against the Wolverines, but behind Andy Iles' stellar play and Rodger Craig's game-winning goal, they were able to pull off the upset. The following night they played the Bulldogs very closely, but did not have an answer for their second goal of the third period. I would like to congratulate Coach Schafer and his team on a tremendous season. This wasn't the most talented squad Ithaca's seen in the past years, but they might have been the most complete team. Their victory over Michigan might be the most impressive win by an ECAC team this season.

Cornell celebrates Rodger Craig's OT winner vs. Michigan

The ECAC Hockey banner will be carried into the Frozen Four by the Dutchmen of Union College. They were able to beat Torey Krug and the Michigan State Spartans on Friday by the score of 3-1 for the program's first ever win at the D1 level, and then topped the UMass-Lowell 4-2 the following night to advance to their first ever Frozen Four. Union is the first ECAC team to reach the final weekend in college hockey since Cornell did in 2003. Being a Union grad, watching my team win an NCAA game and then advance to the Frozen Four was a surreal moment for me. I won't go into it, but my buddy Zach Pearce at the Union Hockey Blog sums up my feelings perfectly.

I watched all the East Regional games live and I thought Union's Jeremy Welsh and Troy Grosenick  stole the show. Welsh was an absolute beast in both games, making big hits and scoring a goal in each matchup. Barry Melrose and John Buccigross were salivating over him during the TV broadcast, and I'm sure the scouts were as well. Besides his fluky turnover that led to UML's second goal, he played great and was deserving of the regionals Most Outstanding Player.

At the same time, Grosenick let the country know that he was the real deal. Even though he was a Hobey Baker finalist and named the top goalie in the league, I feel that a lot of people around the country were overlooking him because he played in the ECAC. I'm sure many people felt UML's Doug Carr and Miami's Connor Knapp were better than Grosenick, but I think he proved otherwise. He was very good against the Spartans, and then came up with some ridiculous game-saving stops against the River Hawks (which earned him SportsCenter's #2 play of the night). He might have also played himself into a Hobey Baker Hat Trick spot.

I thought Union's fans put up a good showing in Bridgeport. For a smaller fan base, a lot of supporters came to see their team win, especially on Saturday night. The Dutchmen crowd wasn't especially loud, which is probably due to their inexperience (and nervousness as well). I thought the UMass-Lowell crowd was the best. They had the best pep band and the most raucous fans, who had some great signs. They were chanting "Easy-AC" during the Union game, but when the Dutchmen had everything all wrapped up after Kyle Bodie's empty-netter, the Union faithful started chanting "ECAC!," which I thought was really cool.

Union celebrates victory of UML (Times Union) 

Union will face another first-time Frozen Four participant in Ferris State in the first Frozen Four semifinal next Thursday. If Union were to win, they'd be the first ECAC team to reach the final since Colgate in 1990. I don't know too much about the Bulldogs at the moment, but from what I can tell it will be a very low-scoring, defensive game. Ferris is very good defensively and on the penalty kill, but Union is also has a shutdown defense. I think Union's power-play will have to come up big. While Ferris has the sixth ranked penalty kill in the nation, they still take a lot of penalties. If they give the Dutchmen too many chances, they will capitalize. The winner of the first semifinal will play either Boston College or Minnesota for the national championship.

Now, looking forward to the Frozen Four, it could be the greatest weekend in ECAC Hockey in over 20 years. In a matter of 24+ hours we could see the league's first Hobey Baker winner since Harvard's Lane MacDonald in 1989, and first national champion since Harvard in 1989.

While Union will be the league's only shot to break the national championship drought, it's a little unsure now who could break the Hobey Baker streak. This time last week, it was pretty much decided that Colgate's Austin Smith would be the one to give the league its best shot, but with the emergence of Grosenick, he has a legitimate shot as well. My guess is that only one of these guys will crack the Top 3. Will they win? Who knows. Grosenick and Smith are both very deserving, as well as Maine's Spencer Abbott, Wisconsin's Justin Schultz, and Minnesota-Duluth's Jack Connolly.  While I truly think Smith give the league its best shot, Grosenick will also be considered for leading his team to the final weekend.

Troy Grosenick (Times Union)

There's also another thing to think about. Did Grosenick's performance help or hurt Smith's chances of winning the Hobey. Grosenick's dominance over a CCHA and Hockey East team might have some people thinking that his stats were not padded. This could help Smith since some think his goal total is blown out of proportion. Grosenick might have legitimized Smith's stats. On the other hand, some people might think Grosenick is the best player in the ECAC. This could take some votes away from Smith, and the two could cancel each other out. Who knows what Grosenick's performance has done. We'll find out later this week.

This is a very exciting time for our league, and I hope fans of any league team are supporting the Dutchmen in Tampa and the Hobey Baker finalists. Our league gets no respect, and this could be a weekend that changes everything. Let's hope.