1989 And Still Waiting: colgate

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Monday, April 9, 2012

My Thoughts on Union, Hobey, Tampa, and the Frozen Four

The 2011-12 ECAC Hockey season officially ended on Thursday as the Union College Dutchmen fell to Ferris State 3-1 in the Frozen Four semifinals. The league has yet to have a representative play for the national championship since Colgate in 1990.

I thought the Dutchmen didn't bring their best game to the big stage. They weren't able to get much going and looked sloppy and timid at times. The Bulldogs were excellent defensively and in their transition game, and in the end came up with the big plays. But, I thought Ferris played their best game of the weekend on Saturday in the 4-1 loss to Boston College. If the Dutchmen played with more poise, I think they could haveve definitely won that game. Against Boston College, well, that might have been a different story.

Mat Bodie was called for an elbow on this play

While Union hurt themselves with their play, I also felt they were hurt by the refereeing. The Dutchmen thrive on the power-play and were going up against the 10th most penalized team in the nation, which looked like a good matchup. But, the Dutchmen only received one man advantage (which didn't even last the full two minutes), while the Bulldogs received four PP opportunities, converting once. The one call the really stood out to me was when Josh Jooris was called for high-sticking with about 40 seconds left in Union's only power-play chance. I've watched about 50 college hockey games this year, and I think this call was the one of the worst I saw all season. In the play Ferris goalie Taylor Nelson covered up the puck, and one of the Ferris defenders put up his hands and then so did Jooris. They both hit in to each other, but the Ferris player fell, prompting the ref to call a penalty ONLY on Jooris. There shouldn't have been a penalty to either player anyways. I was shocked, especially since in another instance in the game, Union's Kevin Sullivan was sucker punched in the back of the head while driving the net on a shot and nothing was called. It was infuriating.

But, at the end of the day you have to earn your penalties and goals, and overcome adversity.

It was very depressing to see the Bulldogs score the empty netter, knowing that the season was over. But, I feel the Dutchmen have a good chance of being back next year. They have been building a great program and have been reaching new heights every year. But, as a league we are still... 1989 & Still Waiting.

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Austin Smith sitting on the far right

I was hoping the weekend could be salvaged on Friday with the announcement of the Hobey Baker Award. While all the candidates were definitely deserving of this great honor, Colgate's Austin Smith was definitely the most deserving candidate THIS SEASON. Just read my analysis of the candidates, and it's pretty obvious who should have won... SHOULD HAVE WON. Instead of Smith, Minnesota-Duluth's Jack Connolly won the award. Don't get me wrong, Connolly had a tremendous career (one that was better than Smith's), won a national championship, and was one of the best players during the past four seasons, but he was not better than Smith this season. I feel that Connolly was given the award based on his career achievements. But, this is not a CAREER award, it's an SINGLE SEASON award. Some voters might have discounted Smith's numbers because he played in the ECAC, which they might feel is "lesser" competition. To some extent I understand that, but this season was one of the tougher seasons in league history in a long time. I mean, seven of the 12 All-America East selections were from the ECAC. Austin Smith was robbed of this award, and the league is, once again, 1989 & Still Waiting.

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Plaza in front of the Tampa Bay Times Forum

On a more positive note, I thought the city of Tampa did a great job hosting this great event. You could really tell that the people involved and the the city really cared about the event. There was great signage around the city and the events were well put together. I also thought the Tampa Bay Times Forum was a great venue. It's a very nice arena with good food, short lines, and other nice pieces to it. I liked the plaza where the Frozen Fest was held. But, I do have one big knock on the event... it didn't sell out. That's a HUGE for the event and college hockey as a whole. You have to sell out the Frozen Four. So, while maybe the event was great, maybe it wasn't good for the game as a whole. I do think the Frozen Four will be back in Tampa, but hopefully by that time the event will easily sell out.

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Overall, this was a very exciting but disappointing weekend for ECAC Hockey. But, the league and its members have a lot to be proud of. I think this season was a statement to the changing college hockey world saying that we're here to compete with the big boys and we can succeed doing it. Not only do we have great academics, but we have great teams and players. WATCH OUT AND RESPECT US! But, there is still more respect to be gained. I think many feel that until an ECAC team wins a national championship, that the league is a "lesser" league. Hopefully we don't have too much longer to wait for that moment.

We will have to earn this moment:

Sunday, April 1, 2012

Why Austin Smith Will Win The Hobey Baker Award

This past Thursday, the Hobey Hat Trick finalists were announced. While Union's Troy Grosenick did not make the cut, we are fortunate to have Colgate's Austin Smith (36G - 21A - 57PTS) make the Top 3. He is the first ECAC player to make the final round since Cornell goaltender David McKee (who is also a Texas native, like Smith) in 2005. And as you probably know by now, the last league player to win the award was Harvard's Lane McDonald in 1989.

The other two finalists are Minnestoa-Duluth's Jack Connolly (20G - 40A - 60PTS) and Maine's Spencer Abbott (21G - 41A - 62PTS. Like Smith, these two candidates are seniors, were named their respective league's MVP, and led their team in scoring. Abbott is second in the nation with 62 points, and Connolly is right behind him.

While Connolly and Abbott are tremendous players, I feel Smith is the logical choice to win the most coveted individual award in college hockey. Here's why:

Goals > Assists
While playmakers are extremely valuable, they can't pick up the assist totals without a good finisher. I'd much rather have a guy with 30 goals than 30 assists. There's also the fact that there's no such thing as a secondary goal, but you can pick up an assist on a secondary assist. Smith not only led the nation with 36 goals, he did so by a healthy margin. The only other player in the country with 30 goals was Miami's Reilly Smith (no relation). Abbott's 21 goals is tied for 18th most in the nation, while Connolly's 20 are tied for 21st. In other words, "Hobey Like Goals."

Smith Earned His Points
This isn't saying that Abbott and Connolly didn't earn their points, but their stat totals are slightly padded. The first thing to note is the amount of points each player picked up while on the power-play. While Smith only notched about 25% of points while on the man advantage, Abbott and Connolly picked up about half of their points on the PP. Also note that Smith had six shorthanded goals (8PTS overall), while the other two candidates only have on shorthanded point this season.

The next point is on the topic of assists. Not only were Abbott and Connolly the top two in points in the country, they were also the top two in assists. Smith is not even in the Top 30 with just 21 points. But, take a look at primary assists, which I think are more valuable and harder to come by than secondary assists. While Abbott and Connolly each had 16 secondary assists, Smith only had six. So, while the other candidates picked up 42% of their assists on secondary assists, Smith accumulated only 32% of his assists as the secondary assistman. What this means is that while Abbott and Connolly are great playmakers, they did not have a "direct" impact on goals as much as Smith did. While I'm sure a lot of Abbott and Connolly's secondary assists were vital to goals, I'm also confident saying that a good portion of them were picked up on lesser plays.

The Others Had Help
This is definitely not a knock on Smith's linemate Chris Wagner. The sophomore centerman was absolutely vital to Smith's success this year, picking up 34 assists this season and adding 17 goals of his own. But after that, the Raiders didn't have too many guns this year. While Smith and Wagner each had 50+ points, no Raider had more than 23 points or 12 goals.

Abbott and Connolly definitely had more help than Smith. Abbott played on a line with Brian Flynn (18G - 30A - 48PTS) and Joey Diamond (25G - 22A - 47PTS). Over half of Abbott's assists came on goals by Flynn and Diamond. He also received support from Matt Mangene (16G - 18A - 34PTS) and Will O'Neill (3G - 30A - 33PTS) on the power-play.

Connolly's story is a bit different. He played the majority of the season with Mike Seidel (17G - 13A - 30PTS) and Joe Basarba (7G - 9A - 16PTS). This line was definitely the secondary offensive threat for the Bulldogs with the Caleb Herbert (14G - 19A - 33PTS) - Travis Oleksuk (21G -32A - 53PTS) - J.T. Brown (24G - 23A - 47PTS) combination putting up some monster numbers. This would make it seem like Connolly did not have the help to put up big numbers. But, if you look a little closer, Connolly saw a ton of time with Brown and Oleksuk on the power-play. About 40% of Connolly's assists were on goals by Brown and Oleksuk, the majority of which were on the power-play. So, while Connolly didn't play on a line with these guys, he still relied on them heavily to accumulate points.

The "EZAC" Does Not Exist
The ECAC gets a bad reputation around the country for being a weak league and not a part of the "Big 4." To be honest with you, before this season I agreed with those people in the WCHA, CCHA, and Hockey East. But, I think this season has proved that the ECAC is the real deal and a tough conference. Smith has Union and Cornell to thank for that. I think Union's run to the Frozen Four, and Cornell's win over Michigan and close game with Ferris gave the league a lot of legitimacy. This is the first time in a while that a representative from each of the "Big 4" conferences are in the Frozen Four. In years prior some people might have discounted Smith's numbers, but this year I think they solidify them. He had to go up against Union's Troy Grosenick and Cornell's Andy Iles a combined six times this season. In those six games, Smith tallied six points on three goals and three assists.

Smith Meant More To His Team
Once again, this does not mean that Abbott and Connolly were not valuable to their respective teams. They were both probably the MVP of their team, as was Smith. But, I believe Smith is the most valuable player to his team in the country. Without Smith, not only do I doubt that the Raiders would have finished in the Top 4 of the ECAC, but I think they would have finished in the bottom half. I really can't see Colgate being better than Quinnipiac and Yale, or even Clarkson this year without Smith. While Maine and Minnesota-Duluth would definitely be weaker teams without Abbott and Connolly, respectively, they would still be very competitive teams in their respective leagues and at least UMD would've probably made the NCAA Tournament. I can also mention Smith's five game-winning goals. Abbott and Connolly had five GWG's between them.

* Note: The percentages used in the analysis are approximate numbers

So, after looking at each candidate and analyzing everything involved in selecting the winner, I think Austin Smith of Colgate and ECAC Hockey is the clear-cut choice to win the Hobey Baker Award. Spencer Abbott and Jack Connolly are definitely worthy candidates, but Smith just had an incredible season.